Social Security Speculation

Perhaps in my previous post, I got all atwitter a little too early on winning the fight to save Social Security.

Hesiod, from the American Street, has an interesting theory, which I gather is shared by lot of others, as well.

Apparently, Bush has said that the supporters of private accounts have a six-week window of opportunity to turn around public opinion. This jibes with Mickey Kaus’ theory that Karl Rove wants either a win on this issue, or a quick failure that will not have an impact on the midterm elections next year. A theory I agree with.

BUT….

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So here is what will likely happen. Bush will eventually abandon the private accounts idea, and embrace one of the aforementioned alternative “fixes” for Social Security(the retirement age or eliminating the income cap on FICA). He will almost certainly get Democratic support for those fixes.

That, in turn, will give many Republicans who are in marginal districts or in Blue States political cover to “save” Social Security by endorsing and voting for, say, removing the income cap on FICA.

Then, VIOLA! — George W. Bush and the Republicans go into the 2006 midterms as the party that “saved Social Security!” Erasing for a generation the inherenet advantage Democrats have had on the issue for decades.

But a good and effective domestic policy decision coming from Bush and Rove??? That may be too much to expect.